Impact Assessment of the IMO basket of candidate mid-term GHG reduction measures for select African countries

Shipping and Oceans team
Apr 24
4 min read

London, 24 April 2026 — A new study, from the Professional African Technical Network Advisory (PATNA) Initiative and UCL Shipping and Oceans Research Group, quantifies how IMO mid-term measures will raise trade costs across Liberia's most critical commodities, with long-term impacts reaching over 11% for timber and between 34.5% and 36.3% for food product imports. Without an operationalised IMO Net-Zero Fund, these increases risk compounding existing structural disadvantage rather than financing a pathway out of it.

For economies like Liberia, a LDC already absorbing the material consequences of climate change along the coastlines, climate policies like the NZF are not simply an environmental instrument. It is the architecture through which climate and economic vulnerabilities can be meaningfully addressed, provided it generates revenues that are effectively redistributed to impacted but least polluting countries that need it most.

"The ambitious 2050 shipping decarbonisation goal of the IMO 2023 GHG Strategy, while feasible, faces many challenges especially with respect to likely impacts on states of GHG reduction measures. In this respect, the Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC) of the IMO setup a Steering Committee to conduct a Comprehensive Impact Assessment (CIA) of mid-term reduction measures. However, it was not possible to conduct assessment on individual Member state, i.e. 176 Member States. Thus, the aggregation of Member States in some instances. This notwithstanding does not mean states could not carry out their own independent studies of potential impacts of the measures. As a matter of fact, that is the sensible thing to do. In this regard, the LEAP Project filled an important gap. A case study on Liberia was one of six cases undertaken in Africa. The study revealed the stark challenges developing countries like Liberia would face when the IMO GHG midterm GHG reduction measures are rolled out. Liberia, an import and export dependent country, could see a decrease in the country’s Gross Domestic Product and the attendant implications for the trade competitiveness of Liberia. While the extent of the impacts of the measures is to be determined by the exact nature of the adopted economic policy measures, the study provides a good basis for developing countries like Liberia to start anticipating what policy measures they may need to put into place to mitigate the potential impacts. On the other hand, it could provide evidence for need financial support to assist countries like Liberia mitigate any negative impact that may arise because of the IMO GHG Reduction Measures" Dr. Harry Conway, Liberia Case Study Technical Lead

Related previously published studies from the LEAP Phase I project about Nigeria, Namibia and Malawi can be found here: New report assesses economic impact of IMO’s candidate GHG reduction measures on Nigeria’s shipping and trade and New analysis highlights trade-offs between a levy and a fuel standard, and the need to balance short-term with long-term gains for African nations

Leading Effective Afro-centric Participation (LEAP) project initiative was developed to provide a technical toolkit for supporting the African member states.

LEAP Phase I project was organised around four interconnected workstreams, each designed to link technical analysis with political strategy in a way that reinforced Africa’s collective position:

National Emission Inventories – Country-level inventories of maritime emissions were developed for Ghana, Nigeria, Namibia, Malawi, Kenya, and Liberia using a combination of port call data and Automatic Identification System (AIS) records. These inventories provided, for the first time, a clear picture of emissions linked to African shipping activities.
Case Studies of Economic Impact – Detailed case studies applied IMO policy scenarios to key national commodities, such as cocoa, crude oil, tobacco, uranium, sesame, fish, and petroleum imports. The work quantified the likely cost impacts of different measures, giving states an evidence base to understand both risks and opportunities.
Interpretation of Global Models – Results from the IMO’s Comprehensive Impact Assessment (undertaken by DNV and UNCTAD) were translated into short, digestible policy briefs. These were tailored to African contexts, allowing negotiators to navigate highly technical material with clarity and confidence.
Regional Convenings & Capacity Building – In-country workshops and consultations were held across the six case study states. These convenings created collaborative spaces for maritime regulators, ministries, universities, and private sector stakeholders to come together, exchange insights, and build consensus ahead of IMO meetings.

Together, these four streams combined to produce Africa’s first technical toolkit for maritime decarbonization—a toolkit that ensured national interests were backed by solid evidence before the IMO’s Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC).

LEAP Phase II marks the next stage in a growing African-led initiative aimed at shaping the future of maritime decarbonisation. Building on the foundations laid in Phase I, this phase seeks to deepen Africa’s technical and diplomatic capacity, ensuring that African countries are not only present in global negotiations at the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) but also influential in shaping the rules, mechanisms, and funding structures that will guide the transition to net-zero shipping. LEAP Phase II is about enabling a Just Transition: one that reflects Africa’s priorities in food security, economic resilience, and equitable access to new technologies. Through workshops, research, technical analysis, and inclusive engagement, the project positions Africa to lead with evidence, unity, and a clear purpose in the global maritime decarbonisation agenda.

The PATNA Initiative is a non-profit organisation dedicated to supporting African-centred climate action and energy transition pathways grounded in evidence, collaboration, and institutional understanding. For further information visit: https://thepatna.org/