Shipping’s transition being hampered by policy uncertainty, yet industry progress continues
New report reveals uneven progress towards shipping’s rapidly approaching 2030 zero-emission fuel target, due in part to delayed adoption of the IMO Net-Zero Framework
Failure to adopt a global regulatory framework last year has been the ‘single most transition-regressive event in the five years the report has been running’
Some indicators have seen major year-on-year advancements, while others have stagnated or even regressed
The 2030 target remains achievable, but only if lost momentum is regained quickly through adoption of the Net-Zero Framework this year, alongside accelerated industry and national action
New York, 22nd September 2026 – The shipping industry is at greater risk than ever of missing its 2030 zero-emission fuel targets, due in large part to the regulatory uncertainty of the last 12 months, according to a new report.
Launched today at New York Climate Week, the fifth edition of the 'Climate action in shipping: Progress towards shipping's 2030 breakthrough' report tracks the sector's advancement towards its climate target of having at least 5-10% of the fuel used in international shipping come from scalable zero-emission sources (SZEF) by 2030. This is the estimated level of SZEF uptake needed to meet the ambitions laid out in the 2023 International Maritime Organization (IMO) Greenhouse Gas Strategy, and ultimately, the industry's entire 2050 net-zero goal.
The latest edition of the report reveals mixed progress towards that swiftly approaching target, with multiple indicators demonstrating the flow-on effects of economic and political upheaval, the crisis in Hormuz, energy security and supply chain concerns, and the regulatory uncertainty caused by the failure to adopt the IMO's Net-Zero Framework (NZF) last year.
"Shipping’s energy transition is necessary and is going to happen. The obviously worsening impacts of climate change demand it. The 2030 breakthrough target was embraced by an industry that needs to start bringing tomorrow’s zero-emission fuels to market today if it is going to do its part,” said Jesse Fahnestock, director of decarbonisation at the Global Maritime Forum. “While the geopolitical turmoil of the past year has frustrated this process, with the right policy push, accelerated industry action can still deliver on this crucial ambition. Adoption of the Net-Zero Framework at the IMO would allow that acceleration to begin in earnest.”
Across the five key 'levers' used to assess the industry's progress (technology and supply, demand, finance, policy, and civil society), there have been multiple achievements. The last year has seen the world's first ammonia bunkering and sea trials, a 53% increase in the number of ports offering methanol bunkering (19 to 29), a tripling of methanol-capable in-service tonnage (the largest single-year capability gain ever), and the global shipping finance portfolio's greatest improvement in climate alignment on record.
"Shipping's pathway to zero remains achievable, investable, and aligned with development goals. Positive progress in technology and zero-emission fuel supply is encouraging, but investment decisions cannot afford to wait," said Dan Ioschpe, Climate High-Level Champion for COP30. "Demand for zero-emission shipping and financial flows directed toward zero-emission shipping are critical to accelerating the pace. Done right, climate action in shipping will increase competitiveness, improve energy security and drive socio-economic development."
Despite this positive progress, other key levers needed to reach the 2030 breakthrough target (particularly across demand, finance, and policy) have either stagnated or worsened since the last report. With demand signals weakened by the widespread 'wait and see' approach to global regulation, the order book has regressed (SZEF-capable vessels fell from 9.5% to 5.7% of total tonnage on order), and shipping-specific sustainable debt issuance decreased from US$ 3.4 billion in 2024 to US$ 3.0 billion in 2025.
"The failure to adopt the NZF was the single most transition-regressive event we've seen in the five years this report has been running," said Dr Pinar Langer, research fellow at the UCL Energy Institute. "Reversing this momentum loss and securing regulatory certainty this year is therefore also one of the most important next steps to give shipowners the confidence to order zero-emission vessels, lenders the incentive to invest in them, and charterers the impetus to pay for low-carbon shipping."
The report makes multiple recommendations, including that the IMO adopt the NZF 'as is' at the upcoming session in December, as this will create the global policy clarity and direction the ecosystem urgently needs. It also stresses the growing importance of national and regional policies that underpin SZEF production to de-risk first-mover action, regardless of what happens next at the IMO.
2026 progress tracker
Technology and SZEF supply – partially on track
Demand – not on track
Finance – not on track
Policy – not on track
Civil society – partially on track
The 'Climate action in shipping: Progress towards 2030's breakthrough' report is a joint effort between the UCL Energy Institute, Getting to Zero Coalition, and Climate High-Level Champions.
